Fuel had quietly slipped down the list of freight worries — bunker prices had eased for weeks. That reversed almost overnight. With the Strait of Hormuz closed again amid the Iran conflict, crude jumped about 10% and bunker prices roughly 5% in days, and a proposed 20% transit fee adds another layer of uncertainty.
Why it matters even to shippers nowhere near the Gulf: bunkers are the single biggest variable cost in ocean freight, and they flow through to your invoice as the BAF (bunker adjustment factor). When bunkers spike, BAF follows — usually with a short lag — on every lane, including the Caribbean and Latin American trades.
Our read: in the very short term, container spot rates are still driven more by peak-season demand than by fuel, so you may not see an immediate jump. But as the peak unwinds and demand stops masking costs, fuel becomes the floor under rates — and BAF is where it shows up first. Two practical moves: get BAF terms in writing rather than "market" on any booking you fix now, and for longer commitments, ask whether a bunker cap or fixed-BAF window is available. Small print, real money, in a volatile fuel market.
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