The acute phase of the Iran conflict is now well behind us, and bunkers have eased off the worst of their summer highs — but the fuel line on your invoice still deserves close attention. Through that disruption, oil ran up ~20% and bunker prices climbed roughly 12%, and they've only partly retraced since. Fuel stays firm, and a new fuel-adjacent cost has moved to the front of the queue: potential Panama Canal low-water surcharges as transit restrictions return.
Why it matters even to shippers nowhere near the Gulf or the canal: bunkers are the single biggest variable cost in ocean freight, and they flow through to your invoice as the BAF (bunker adjustment factor). When bunkers move, BAF follows — usually with a short lag — on every lane, including the Caribbean and Latin American trades. A canal low-water surcharge works the same way: a separate pass-through line that lands on top of your base rate.
Our read: heading into Q4, the base transpacific rate is finally on borrowed time as peak demand fades — but port congestion and firm fuel mean the all-in cost won't fall as fast as the base rate. Elevated bunkers become the floor under rates, showing up first in the BAF, and any Panama surcharge stacks on top. So the base-rate relief you're about to be offered is partly hollow if the fuel and canal lines are left open. Two practical moves: get BAF (and any canal surcharge) in writing rather than "market" on any booking you fix now, and for longer commitments, ask whether a bunker cap or fixed-BAF window is available. Small print, real money, in a market where the base rate is finally moving your way.
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