Is peak season topping out? What it means for Caribbean feeder space

For three straight weeks the headline has been the same: ocean rates climbing. Transpacific is now more than $3,000/FEU above late-May levels. But this week the tone shifted — and for those of us moving cargo into the Caribbean, the interesting question isn't whether Asia rates are high. It's what happens to feeder space when they stop climbing.

Here's the mechanism most shippers miss. When the mainline Asia lanes are this hot, carriers redeploy tonnage toward them and hold back capacity on secondary trades — including the Gulf and Caribbean feeder services we rely on. That's why Kingston and Rio Haina space has felt tight even though nothing changed on those lanes specifically.

So the real signal to watch isn't the Freightos index — it's carrier capacity discipline on the feeder trades. Our read: as long as the mainline stays hot, Caribbean space stays tight, and the smart move is to secure July and August bookings early rather than wait for a drop that congestion may delay. We're watching transshipment dwell at Curaçao and Kingston, the July 24 tariff deadline, and Venezuela risk premiums as the three things that decide which way rates break next.