For three straight editions we called the transpacific peak "a peak on borrowed time." China's Golden Week finally collected the debt. Spot rates held essentially flat through the holiday week and have slipped slightly since — the relentless climb that defined the late summer is over.
Benchmarks put Asia–US West Coast around $8,300/FEU and the East Coast near $9,600/FEU, broadly flat week on week; Drewry's World Container Index read a touch softer, down roughly 2–3%, as holiday demand faded on both the transpacific and Asia–Europe. Asia–Europe, meanwhile, has fully given back its earlier spike as carriers returned capacity to the Suez routing.
But a plateau is not a collapse — and carriers intend to keep it that way. They have announced fresh mid-October FAK (freight-all-kinds) increases to defend the floor, and the supply side is still doing real work: Far East congestion from the autumn's typhoons has not fully cleared, and blank sailings continue. The result is a tug-of-war — softening demand on one side, deliberate capacity discipline and rate hikes on the other.
What it means for the Gulf & Caribbean
For our lanes, the immediate good news is that the Golden Week feeder squeeze is easing as mainline capacity frees back up — space is getting easier to find. The catch is timing: the window to lock a better rate is open now and may be brief, because the mid-month FAK hikes are aimed squarely at closing it. Our advice flips from "secure space at any price" to "get firm quotes in writing this week, before the increases land."
Keep one eye on the Panama Canal, too: low-water transit measures could add a surcharge to canal-routed cargo even as base rates ease, quietly offsetting the relief. Have your BAF/EFS and any canal surcharge itemized before you commit.
The full picture, every week
This story is drawn from our Weekly Market Letter — read the complete edition with Gulf & Caribbean rates by origin, the Venezuela route focus and our commercial recommendations.
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